The Signal and the Noise

Resumen del libro

Called a 'spreadsheet psychic' and 'number-crunching guru' (New York magazine), Silver was named one of TIME's 100 most influential people and one of Rolling Stone's top 100 agents of change - all before he turned 30. An expert forecaster reveals his techniques. Every time we choose a route to work, decide whether to go on a second date, or set aside money for a rainy day, we are making a prediction about the future. Yet from the global financial crisis to 9/11 to the Fukushima disaster, we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise, the New York Times' political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction, revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball. We live in an increasingly data-driven world, but it is harder than ever to detect the true patterns amid the noise of information. In this dazzling insider's tour of the world of forecasting, Silver reveals how we can all develop better foresight in our everyday lives.